War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".