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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."